A sell-off in gold, food and oil
gathered pace yesterday as speculative funds pulled cash out of the futures
markets in a continuing quest for security amid fears of a slowing American
economy.
Gold led the rout, losing 4 per cent of
its value, adding to its 6 per cent fall on Wednesday, leaving the metal priced
at $920 an ounce, compared with its peak of $1,030 on Monday. Oil was also
battered, initially falling below $100 a barrel before recovering.
The dash for cash extended to base
metals as anxiety increased about the economic downturn. Copper and lead
tumbled on the London Metal Exchange and the price of wheat and soya beans
suffered a sell-off.
The flight from food, metals and oil
was propelled yesterday by a strengthening of the dollar. Meanwhile, some
brokerage firms asked for additional margin from clients to cover the mounting
risk from volatile trading. The call for margin cash caused some investors to
liquidate aggressive positions, worsening the sell-off. Hedge funds began
dipping their toes into commodities a year ago and since the end of last year
have been aggressive buyers in a frenzied speculation over the falling value of
the US currency.
Most traded commodities are priced in dollars
and so can be a useful hedge against a falling greenback. Gold has been the
traditional inflation hedge but the surge in oil’s price, which peaked on
Monday above $111 a barrel, is widely attributed to hedge fund speculation on a
dollar collapse. A smaller than expected interest rate cut by the US Federal
Reserve on Tuesday halted the dollar’s fall and appears to have caused fright
among hedge funds with very long positions in oil and gold.
Fear of recession in the US is fuelling
debate over the sustainability of further rises in commodity prices. MF Global
warned clients yesterday that too little attention was being paid to flagging
US demand for manufactured goods.
However, Schroders, a leading commodities investor, said that the underlying pressures driving commodities upwards continued. “We are at the beginning of a 15-to20 year bull market,” the fund manager said.